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AI and Job Displacement: Productivity Myths and Wage Polarization

AI and job displacement is transforming the future of work by accelerating automation, exaggerating productivity gains, and deepening wage polarization. As artificial intelligence spreads across labor markets, middle-wage jobs decline, labor’s income share falls, and economic adjustment costs shift toward workers rather than firms. Introduction: AI and Job Displacement AI

Latest Global Economic Spotlight

Illustration showing a split economy, with AI-powered robots and rising charts on one side, and a stressed worker with falling economic indicators on the other, representing the AI productivity paradox.

AI Productivity Paradox: Why Automation Is Not Boosting Growth

The AI productivity paradox refers to the persistent gap between rapid advances in artificial intelligence and weak aggregate productivity growth. Despite large-scale automation and digital investment, economic expansion remains subdued

Global Recession Risk Index 2025–2026 world map showing high, moderate and low recession risk across emerging markets with debt, inflation and supply chain stress indicators

Global Recession Risk Index 2025–2026: Mapping the Next Shock Across Emerging Markets

The global recession risk index 2025–2026 measures where the next global economic shock will most likely turn into a full-scale emerging-market crisis. Recessions do not begin with falling GDP numbers.

Illustrated cover image depicting Donald Trump against a backdrop of global conflict, featuring oil barrels, gold bars, military vehicles, fighter jets, national flags, and burning cityscapes symbolizing resource nationalism and the threat of World War III.

The Trump Doctrine: Resource Nationalism and the Road to World War III

Trump Doctrine and World War III are increasingly connected as U.S. foreign policy shifts toward resource nationalism, regime pressure, and rejection of international legal constraints. From Venezuela and Iran to

Illustration showing persistent inflation squeezing middle-class households through rising prices, rent pressure, fuel costs, and shrinking purchasing power

Inflation Persistence and the Middle-Class Squeeze: Why Prices Are Not Falling Fast Enough

Middle class inflation pressure explains why prices are not falling fast enough. Sticky services inflation, rising housing costs, and wage-price mismatches continue to erode real incomes across advanced and emerging

Islamic Economic Spotlights

Illustration explaining the Islamic concept of Takaful and Waqf Fund, showing mutual protection, charitable endowment, Islamic jurisprudence, and community welfare symbols

اسلامی تصورِ تکافل اور وقف فنڈ: فقہی و سماجی بنیاد

اسلامی تصورِ تکافل اور وقف فنڈ کی تفصیلی وضاحت، جس میں قرآنی کفالت، اجتماعی ذمہ داری، زکوٰۃ، وقف، عاقلہ، اور مرَوَّجہ اسلامی تکافل کے ادارہ جاتی ماڈل کا فقہی و

Weekly Economic Brief

Chart of the week

Bar chart comparing headline inflation and food inflation across emerging and advanced economies in 2025–26, showing food inflation consistently higher in emerging markets such as Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Food Inflation in Emerging Economies 2026: Why Prices Stay High

Food inflation in emerging economies remains stubbornly high despite easing global inflation. Using cross-country data and IMF and FAO insights, this analysis explains why food prices remain sticky, how this worsens cost of living pressures, and why monetary policy alone cannot resolve food-driven inflation stress. Introduction Food inflation in emerging economies remains one of the most persistent sources of economic stress in 2025–2026. Although global headline inflation has declined sharply,

Country Analysis

Opinion & Editorial

Arctic geopolitical power shift showing Russia and the United States competing over oil, gas, shipping lanes, and strategic military control in a melting polar region.

Arctic Resource Power Shift and the Battle for the Future

The Arctic resource power shift is reshaping the global geopolitical landscape. What was once a frozen and remote region is now becoming a strategic prize, and this transformation is accelerating. Because climate change is melting polar ice, new resources and sea routes are rapidly emerging. As a result, polar resource

Venezuela petrodollar crisis illustrated with burning oil facilities, stacks of U.S. dollars, and the Venezuelan flag symbolizing economic pressure and dollar dominance

Venezuela and the Petrodollar: Paying the Price

Venezuela and the petrodollar reveal how de-dollarization carries economic and political costs. This editorial examines oil pricing, dollar supremacy, sanctions, and coercive enforcement to explain why Venezuela emerged as a test case for defending the petrodollar system. Introduction Debate surrounding Venezuela and the petrodollar often appears fragmented in mainstream commentary.

Illustration showing container ships facing disrupted global trade routes, with chokepoints highlighted across the Middle East and Asia, symbolizing the weaponization of trade corridors

Trade Routes Weaponization is Reshaping Global Commerce

Trade routes weaponization is no longer a theoretical framework debated in academic circles. Instead, it has become a lived reality of global commerce. Shipping lanes, canals, and maritime chokepoints once symbolized efficiency and interdependence. Today, however, they increasingly function as instruments of pressure, disruption, and strategic signaling. At first glance,

Policy Note

Illustration of a globe partially submerged in stormy water with falling red graphs and a dark city skyline, representing the risk of a global recession in 2026

The Risk of a Global Recession in 2026: Early Warning Indicators and Policy Responses

Global recession risk 2026 remains elevated despite moderate growth forecasts. This analysis examines early warning indicators, financial and fiscal vulnerabilities, and coordinated policy responses for central banks and finance ministries facing rising global fragility. Executive overview The global recession risk 2026 has become a central concern for policymakers as the

Illustration showing floods, wildfires, damaged infrastructure, falling fiscal indicators, and stacked coins, representing climate adaptation fiscal risk

Climate Adaptation Fiscal Risk: Policy Note

Climate adaptation fiscal risk is emerging as a central challenge for emerging economies. This policy note examines how rising adaptation spending pressures public budgets, interacts with debt sustainability, and reshapes fiscal policy choices, while outlining strategies to manage climate risks without undermining macroeconomic stability. Introduction Climate adaptation financing is becoming

Gold silver price surge illustrated with gold bars, silver coins, and a rising global chart against a world map, highlighting monetary and financial policy signals

Gold and Silver at All-Time Highs: Signals for Global Monetary and Financial Policy

Gold silver price surge in 2025 highlights rising geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and growing safe-haven demand. This policy note explains record gold and silver prices and what they signal for monetary policy credibility, financial stability, and investor behavior. Introduction Precious metals price surge dominated global commodity markets

Visual Stories

Youth unemployment becoming structural in 2026 showing high youth joblessness around 30 percent, rising NEETs, skills mismatch, precarious work, brain drain, and weakening future prospects across developing regions

Structural Youth Unemployment: Why Jobs Are Vanishing?

Structural youth unemployment examines why youth joblessness is becoming entrenched across emerging and developing economies. Skills mismatch, AI disruption, weak labor demand, and rising NEET populations are driving long term

Will global debt trap the economy in 2026 showing rising sovereign, corporate, and household debt exceeding 330 percent of global GDP, increasing debt distress, higher interest costs, slowing credit, and rising recession risk

Global Debt Risks 2026: Will Debt Trap Growth?

Global debt risks 2026 explain why total debt above 330 percent of global GDP is elevating financial stress across sovereign, corporate, and household sectors. Rising interest costs, slowing credit, and

Infographic showing AI job disruption 2026, comparing sectors with rapid AI adoption such as technology and finance against jobs at high automation risk including customer service, office support, and media roles

How Will AI Disrupt Jobs in 2026? Sectoral Shifts and Labor Market Risk

AI job disruption 2026 highlights how artificial intelligence is reshaping employment patterns. While technology, finance, and healthcare accelerate AI adoption, roles in customer service, office support, and media face rising

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